When it comes to reporting on the climate, mainstream media is failing in its role as agenda setter.
Recently UN scientists announced that signs of human-induced climate change reached “new heights” last year. According to the report, the levels of CO2 observed in the atmosphere represented an 800,000- year high.
I don’t recall seeing “CO2 reaches 800,000-year high” in a 64-pt headline on the front page of our daily newspapers. Look, it’s possible that The Age, The Australian and the Herald Sun did in fact, prioritise this disturbing news and that I simply missed it. After all, it has been quite some time since I was a daily reader of our venerable publications.
I’d be surprised, though, and it would represent a new approach. Usually climate-related news features well down the pecking order. And although I haven’t made a habit lately of watching commercial TV news (or for that matter, commercial TV) I’d be taken aback if it made it to a nightly bulletin.
Since climate change was declared “the great moral challenge of our generation” in 2007 by Australia’s then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, a strange phenomenon has taken place. As climate change has continued to impact and become more obvious, both from a physical and statistical point of view, mainstream media attention has not kept pace.
In the case of The Australian and the Herald Sun, this might be because its editors share similar views towards climate change as News Corp’s owners, the notoriously climate-sceptical Murdoch family (Rupert and Lachlan specifically). News Corp columnists (Andrew Bolt is the sine qua non of denialists) often refute the existence of climate change, or downplay its importance.
Perhaps other news outlet editors are fatigued by climate news. Depressed. This must surely be a phenomenon as unenviable records continue to be set. Taken on their own some of these are compelling. Looked at as a pattern, they tell a nightmarish tale. The UN report, as Yale Environment 360 points out, is full of “grim superlatives”. Ocean heat reached a record high last year, as did global sea levels, which are now rising twice as fast as they were in the 1990s. Sea ice continues to decrease: the past three years were the leanest on record in the Southern Ocean.
Last year was the Earth’s warmest on record, with records dating back to 1850. According to NASA, Earth was about 1.47°C warmer in 2024 than in the late 19th century (1850–1900) preindustrial average.
According to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), 2024 was the first calendar year that has reached more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
“All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850,” says C3S director Carlo Buontempo. “Humanity is in charge of its own destiny, but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence. The future is in our hands – swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate.”
Not only were the past 10 years the warmest on record. Each of those were individually the 10 warmest years on record at the time.
Also, January 2025 was the hottest global January on record – 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels.
Some climate watchers expected the planet to cool slightly last year given the natural La Nina phenomena, but this was not the case. January 2025’s record demonstrates how human-driven ocean warming is increasingly overwhelming these natural patterns.
“Our planet is issuing more distress signals – but this report shows that limiting long-term global temperature rise to 1.5°C is still possible,” says United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. “Leaders must step up to make it happen – seizing the benefits of cheap, clean renewables for their people and economies.”
The world’s biggest emitter of emissions is acting decisively, alright, but heading in the other direction. President Donald Trump has withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, gutted the EPA and NOAA, and ordered the removal of key climate statistics from US websites. He’s permitting logging in US national parks.
Trump also appointed former fracking executive Chris Wright to lead the US Energy Department.
“There is no climate crisis,” Wright said in 2023, “and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition either.”
One wonders what would constitute a climate crisis from Wright’s perspective. Perhaps for him it would be one in which conditions were so bad it threatened further extraction of fossil fuels. As it is, melting of the polar ice caps is expected to make access to these mineral-rich areas easier.
June 2023 through August 2024 saw 15 consecutive months of record-high global temperatures, marking an unprecedented heat streak in the global data set.
The streak ended last September, with September 2024 only the second-hottest September in NASA’s temperature record. The month was 1.26°C above the long-term average, which was much warmer than any other September since 1880, aside from September 2023.
Speaking on the inaugural World Day for Glaciers recently, Dr Jeremy Ely from the University of Sheffield’s School of Geography and Planning, issued a warning on the potential catastrophe that awaits in South America should action not be taken to reduce climate change.
“The first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on climate change was published in 1990, and since then, very little has been done to curb the global carbon emissions fuelling climate change,” he said. “Our brief shows that what scientists have been predicting for years is now coming true, and swift action needs to be taken if we stand any hope of saving and preserving the glaciers that so many people rely on as a source of water.
“All the targets that have been set have already been missed and failed, yet the only way to preserve glaciers is to drastically reduce carbon emissions once and for all,” Ely says. “The situation is serious, and it will take global cooperation to tackle climate change and make meaningful difference for the communities around the world most vulnerable from the effects of climate change.”
The global co-operation on Professor Ely’s wish list is unlikely to manifest any time soon. If there is one thing the new US government has shown us it is that finding common cause across boundaries is not high on its list of priorities. And if you take Trump at his word about wanting to corral Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal, it could even be said that the opposite is true.
So, yes, there has been a steady flow recently of disturbing climate milestones – grim superlatives if you will. Just don’t expect to read too much about it in our newspapers or see anything at all about it on your nightly news, where it would seem it’s a case of no climate news is good news.
It’s “lightning in a bottle” but is passion your everyday inspiration?
Yes, yes, we get that you’re super dedicated to your hobby, team, music or wine, even your job. But are you actually passionate about it, or do you simply have a limited vocabulary?
You hear a lot about passion these days. Passion is an obligatory characteristic for those competing on TV talent quests. Passionate sports fans never miss a game their club plays, their heads full of obscure team-related lore.
For others, their ardour is reserved for a pastime that has become so much more than a hobby: succulents, pottery, mid-century design, travel, or collecting knick-knacks.
Various libations such as coffee, cocktails or craft beer inspire intense devotion and – you guessed it – the p-word.
The professional realm is another site for the expression of passion. Whether it’s an obscure area within a profession (“I’m passionate about antivirus software”) or the crux of a job (“My passion is customer service”), passion is seemingly ubiquitous at the workplace. It would appear there is a surfeit of it out there. An epidemic.
“We live in a passion-fetishising society, where people are constantly being given this very often-unhelpful piece of advice, which is ‘Follow your passion, follow your passion, follow your passion’,” says writer Elizabeth Gilbert.
No one is saying that passion is bad. Of course it isn’t. But it may not always be available to tap into. Passion is energising but also energy-intensive. Enlightening but consuming.
The Shorter Oxford Dictionary lists nine definitions of the word “passion”, the first of which is “the suffering of pain”, as in “the passion of Christ”. In fact, the word derives from the Latin pati, which simply means “pain”. The first four listed meanings all have a connection with pain in some sense, including a now-obsolete definition of “a painful disorder, an affliction of a specified part of the body”, or “a violent attack of disease”.
Other definitions include a “strong barely controllable emotion”, a “strong sexual feeling”, an “outburst of anger or rage” or “a strong enthusiasm for a (specified) thing; an aim or object pursued with strong enthusiasm”.
Under this definition it is certainly possible to be passionate about Excel spreadsheets, your local footy team or the novels of Lee Child.
In my mind, however, those earlier definitions of the word are inextricably tied up with the more contemporary understandings such that something that evokes passion must also spur discomfort. You love something so much that it hurts; or your dedication to it is such that other parts of your life start to suffer. That’s passion.
And because it causes pain, passion cannot be long-lasting or sustainable; it’s an outburst, as per definition #7. An explosion. A brilliant spark. Passion is immersion, emotion and immolation.
As Dr Tyrell told replicant Roy Batty in Blade Runner, “The light that burns twice as brightly burns half as long. And you have burned oh so brightly, Roy.”
It’s true: there are those who really are deeply dedicated to their daily dose of caffeine, or whose predilection for keyboard shortcuts borders on mania.
My problem with the word is its blanket application. From keen interest to ardent devotion and lots of things in between all are filed under “passion”.
Perhaps other terms from the dedication spectrum might better be applied. You do not, after all, have to be a train spotter to drive the 7.30am express to the city and get it there safely and according to schedule. You can be competent and do that. Competence is acceptable. Competence gets the job done. What it lacks in panache it more than compensates with efficiency. So, let’s place it at one end of the spectrum.
Next along on this hypothetical rating scheme is professionalism. A professional is beyond competent – their tasks are completed with efficiency and aplomb, if not savoir-faire. Professionals make for pleasant colleagues because they are usually not overly chatty, and their reliability and efficiency are sources of comfort. Their actions are polished and executed with confidence and dexterity. They do not cut corners.
Beyond professionalism exists the realm of the enthusiast. Those embracing enthusiasm show “intense and eager enjoyment, interest or approval” for a subject or pursuit. There is nothing wrong with enthusiasm, and a lot right. Enthusiasm is attractive and appealing, positive and energetic. Enthusiasts emit good karma. Their vibe is contagious, their work often bodacious. An enthusiast will take you a long way simply on mindset and energy.
Is there another trait capable of enhancing quality of life and perhaps productivity? Consider curiosity. Gilbert says curiosity is more important to a creative individual’s output than passion.
“Passion is the big tower of flame on the hill,” she says. “It’s lightning in a bottle. It’s the voice of God. It’s all very exciting if you should happen to run into it. But it’s not always there. Every single day you can be curious, because every single day, curiosity approaches you and taps on your shoulder almost to the point where you can’t even feel it, and whispers in your ear, ‘Hey, what’s that?!’”
I know what you’re thinking: What kind of cynical bastard can be critical in any way of passion?
To be clear, I admire the passionate, as I do the curious and enthusiastic (among whose number I’d like to think I belong). Passion combined with intention can create an unstoppable force.
Yet somehow passion has become one of those words – like journey, curated, iconic, purpose and humble – whose ubiquity has blunted its impact, blurred its meaning. Passion is almost a cliché. Even your spellcheck doesn’t like it very much.
It’s on trend to be passionate, but fashions come and go. They are ephemeral. A flash in the pan. Professionalism, enthusiasm and curiosity – especially when combined with a soupcon of nonchalance – well, these are as accessible as your daily single-origin double-ristretto.
If your reading journey has seen you reach this far, you may be able to tell from this humble screed that on occasion I enjoy messing around with words and expressing a loosely held opinion. In fact, you could say it’s one of my passions.
What are the big, overarching global influences – megatrends if you will – that we are likely to see in the built environment, and particular in HVAC&R, in the lead‑up to 2050?
Most of us are no doubt familiar with the prefix “mega” being added to words, the application of these giant-making two syllables converting regular-sized things into monsters, behemoths, titans and epics.
I can think of Megadeth, the totally huge and bodacious thrash metal band; Megatron and Megamind, both animated arch-villains; a megachurch, the kind built like a stadium and often led by a charismatic (to some) televangelist; and a megamart, which to my mind is like a supermarket but with more big-box retailers.
The Tattslotto Megadraw may just be the huge windfall that could change your life forever, making you, of course, mega-rich.
Megafauna, megabyte, megacity – all enormous, imposing and capacious – are other mega-things that come to mind.
In a similar vein, megatrends are defined as trends that have an effect on a global scale. These are big, important movements.
A megatrend can be defined as “a widespread and long-term social, economic, environmental, political or technological change that is slow to form but has a major impact once in place”.
It can cover political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions.
In its most recent once-in-a-decade report on global megatrends, CSIRO identified seven such trends to keep an eye on: Adapting to climate change; Leaner, cleaner and greener; the Escalating health imperative; Geopolitical shifts; Diving into digital; Increasingly autonomous; and Unlocking the human dimension.
“Australia is at a pivotal point,” says CSIRO CEO Dr Larry Marshall. “There is a tidal wave of disruption on the way, and it’s critical we take steps now to get ahead of it.
“From resource scarcity to drug‑resistant superbugs, disrupted global trade, and an increasingly unstable climate threatening our health and way of life – these are just some of the challenges we face.
“But these challenges also tell us where the most powerful innovation can be found, when we see a different future, and leverage science to create it.”
In the quest to nail down the abstract term – to draw an outline when what we have is only fuzzy uncertainty – we sought clarity from some future‑thinking individuals.
Abraham Corona Sustainability and resilience “Picture this: as an HVAC&R engineer, I find myself at the intersection of two compelling narratives that shape the world around us: sustainability and resilience in the built environment – megatrend one,” Engineer and entrepreneur Abraham Corona says.
“Imagine walking through the bustling streets of a city, where every building stands as a testament to our commitment to a friendlier universe. It’s no longer just about constructing structures; it’s about weaving sustainability into the very fabric of our cities. Gone are the days of mindless consumption and environmental neglect. Now, every decision, every design, is guided by a reverence for our planet and a desire to leave a positive mark on it.”
Towards net-zero “Working in the Australian HVAC industry for the last 15 years has allowed me to witness firsthand the shift towards net-zero – megatrend two. It’s not just about reducing our carbon footprint; it’s about creating buildings that give back more than they take. Imagine skyscrapers adorned with solar panels, harvesting energy from the sun to power themselves and more. It’s a dance with nature, where every step forward is a step towards a greener, cleaner future.
Adaptive design “But sustainability alone isn’t enough. In a world where climate change endures, resilience is key. We have seen the devastating effects of extreme weather events and natural disasters, and we know that our buildings must be able to weather the storm, quite literally. That’s where adaptive design –megatrend three – comes in, ensuring that our structures can bend without breaking, and bounce back stronger after every setback.
The Earth in 2050 “Now, let’s fast forward to 2050. What does the Earth look like? What are our cities like?In my vision of the future, the Earth breathes a sigh of relief. Our cities are vibrant, thriving hubs of innovation and sustainability. From the towering skyscrapers to the old-fashioned neighbourhood cafes, every corner of our urban landscapes is infused with greenery and life. We have learned to live in harmony with nature, harnessing its power while respecting its limits.
“Technological marvels like 3D printing have revolutionised the construction industry, allowing us to build with unprecedented speed and precision. But more than that, they have opened up a world of possibilities for creativity and design. Imagine reducing construction time by receiving onsite prefabricated modules – modules that were previously not feasible – all brought to life through the magic of 3D printing.
“But perhaps the most inspiring aspect of this future is the sense of community that infuses every aspect of city life. In a world where sustainability is the norm, we have learned to come together, to support one another, and to build a future that works for everyone.”
A citizen of this world “So yes, there are challenges ahead,” Corona says. “But as an HVAC&R engineer and a citizen of this world, I choose to believe in a future where sustainability, resilience, and community are not justcatchwords, but guiding principles that shape every decision we make. Together, we can create a world where the skies are clearer, the air is cleaner, and the future is brighter for generations to come.”
Jessica Allen Three trends to watch “From my little corner of the industry, three trends I see emerging are as follows,” says Jessica Allen.“One, whether out of a desire within the industry to improve or driven by regulation, I believe a huge increase will occur on the focus on air tightness as a priority in the built environment. It’s such an easy grab in terms of upgrades and improvements to thermal comfort and building health, and testing is an easy skill to learn, so we can upskill the industry fairly easily. The more testers that enter the market, the cheaper the gear will become to purchase, too – it’s currently quite pricey even for a single fan kit. This will take off once education spreads.
“Two is that more people will be asking more questions of their builders and architects. Home-owners want to be more informed about what they are paying for, and the energy efficiency space is like a ball of wool that unravels itself before your eyes – one question turns into two, turns into four, turns into eight, and so on.
“My third trend to watch is the electrification of buildings and maybe even some more Passivhaus hotels, hospitals and schools in Australia.”
The changing built environment “Hopefully we manage to avoid mould and condensation problems that higher energy efficiency can inadvertently cause,” Allen says, “and as a result of the work being done, our buildings will become cleaner and healthier to live in.”
Our cities in 2050 “WIFI connectivity controls most things, buildings are bigger and newer as the older buildings are demolished,” Allen says. “Hopefully our overall energy use is reducing, and the type of energy used has moved away from non-renewable sources.”
Ken Thomson Labour reduction A trend Ken Thomson can see emerging in the built environment, architecture and construction in the coming years is a reduction in the amount of labour needed in construction.
“To be able to improve efficiencies in construction,” Thomson says, “we must move towards similar approaches as used in the car market: modularity, automation and the use of AI and robotic/drone inspection to help do design, certification and site inspections for improved quality and speed.
“For the construction industry to remain productive, and become efficient and cost-effective, the amount of labour needed must reduce,” Thomson says.
“The cost of labour in Australia is the significant driver in the cost‑of‑living pressures, because in all areas of the supply chain the cost of building in Australia is high and continuing to increase. The effects are felt on all products. With the cost of labour accounting for around 50 per cent of most construction projects, skills shortages will continue to cause headaches. Fixing this is not a matter of increasing the amount of unskilled and skilled workers in the workforce, it must be addressed by reducing the need for labour altogether.
Increasing the workforce population just increases the pressures in the construction industry, resulting in an increase in costs, and labour rates.
“Slattery expects costs escalation to run at an average of 6–7 per cent per annum over the course of 2024,” Thomson says. “This level of cost increase is not sustainable, and the impact on the overall market is a reduction in investment in Australia, due to increasing costs of doing business.
“For any business to operate they need facilities, and the costs of building are rapidly getting to a stage where other options will have to be considered. Something must give.
“The skill level of workers onsite must increase – skills in using automation, drones, AI, cameras, computer-aided design, and other technologies must make their way onto the construction site, and replace some of the manual tasks.
“Set-out for plaster in-wall framing should not be done manually via a tape measure and chalk, it must be done by a robot and laser marking, using the 3D model. The same works for ductwork set-out, and locating supply grilles, return air grilles, and the like.
“Improvements in the location of the air diffusion in a space results in better thermal comfort and also reduced energy consumption,” he says. “Defining the locations using AI, and then transfer of that information to site via drones and laser measuring is a key aspect and skill that needs to be developed.”
Changes coming “Buildings must become more sustainable, building sizes, locations, design components must be more responsive to the climate and more resilient,” Thomson says.
“Redefining the education process in design, using AI and appropriate technology, is critical in the design approach for a building to be more sustainable.
“Buildings need to be communities, not isolated spaces with single uses and users. As climate change takes effect, protection from the elements will become more and more important, and impacts on food supply and demand will drive towards better integrated systems.
“Using air twice or three times over in a building needs to be considered. By this I mean air must have multiple purposes, and one HVAC&R system must be able to provide for all these purposes. As an example, as air and even water into an office are then exhausted or discharged, it should be used for, say, a vertical farm, then used again as air into an industrial process before it is removed from the building.
“The Line in Saudi Arabia is an example of a project where these processes and uses must be addressed in the design to ensure effective and efficient use of resources. Natural processes need to be used instead of mechanical.
Understanding the basics of physics, physical properties and materials is needed, to make sure we use things more appropriately.”
The Earth in 25 years Have a look at Saudi Arabia for some inspiration here. These types of projects and other ideas being built, developed and imaged by the Saudi government are ideas that encompass what the future must start to look like.
“There are two ways to go: with the flow, or against the flow – where we completely fail to address any of the current issues,” Thomson says.
“In the first scenario, Earth cost dominates, not financial measures. The costs of doing things are measured by impact on the Earth, and this is the measure used for determining value.
Buildings therefore become part of the ecology and not a blight on the Earth, built by scarring the Earth.
“Buildings become a place where integrating natural and artificial becomes a blur, HVAC&R, which is already almost invisible, becomes like magic – something that is there to help manage conditions within a building, but is delivered in a way that it is almost imperceptible from a natural process.
“Or we live in a highly mechanised society, constantly fighting with external conditions, using significant amounts of resources and energy to maintain liveable conditions on the planet, while only barely being able to manage the robust simple machines we currently have.
“We keep everything operating by force and significant energy use, we feed ourselves via mechanised processing of food sources, and have a financial-wealth-based society where only the mega-rich get to experience nature as it once was in a highly controlled environment.
“We continue to use resources at a rapid rate and end up in a situation where scarcity and waste generate significant gaps between the haves and have nots.”
Patrick Chambers More subtle than macro materiality “When I think about the momentum of the 20th century megatrends and the legacy they have created, I can’t help but think that the next wave of megatrends will be more subtle than the macro‑materiality revolution of 20th century urbanisation,” Chambers says.
“Three key trends that I believe are emerging in the built environment include AI, advanced building services and controls systems, and use of natural materials.
“Artificial intelligence and computational design automation will reduce labour costs associated with producing design and construction documentation,” Chambers continues.
“Advanced building services controls systems mean there will be a more ubiquitous application of sensors and monitoring capability, which will help inform machine‑learning‑driven controls that will increase the energy efficiency and performance of our buildings.
“And I believe there will be a renaissance in the use of natural materials.”
What will happen next “AI and computer design will infiltrate many facets of day-to-day tasks and activities,” Chambers predicts.
“From automated meeting minutes to semi-automated reporting activities to software‑embedded workflows.
Everybody with an administrative element of their occupation will experience efficiency gains.
The big question is what will happen next? Will design fees come down, or will it facilitate higher quality documentation within the same budget? Perhaps it will facilitate increased creativity, as people’s minds are relieved of the mundane activities attached with our day-to-day roles.
“There are very interesting debates about whether the industry has holistically become more efficient since the advent of digital documentation versus hand-drawn hard copies, and a similar conversation exists with respect to 3D modelling tools and BIM workflows versus traditional 2D CAD. Automation can obviously save time, but it can also lead us to reduce our attention to detail.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re having a similar debate in 20 years about the impact of AI and comp design on the efficiency of the design process!”
Chambers predicts buildings will become smarter.
“The exponential growth in the production of sensors I suspect will follow a similar Moore’s Law trajectory as the semiconductor,” he says.
“They will become exponentially cheaper, and it will become easier for ubiquitous applications of sensors throughout buildings. This will drive increased monitoring capabilities, which coupled with machine learning and even generative AI-driven controls, I suspect buildings will become much smarter, much more energy‑efficient, and much more adaptive to our needs.”
Chambers suspects growing environmental consciousness will see materials such as wood, bamboo and other renewable resources used for applications beyond structural purposes, hopefully also encouraging innovation in material technology, such as the development of new composites.
“I would like to think that we should expect a move away from synthetic, petroleum-based materials towards those that have a lower carbon footprint, are recyclable, and/or come from responsibly managed sources,” he says.
“This emphasis on natural materials will also impact the broader aesthetic trends in our industry.
Dateline 2050 “I’d like to say things will be vastly different, but the construction industry is a slow-moving beast,” Chambers says.
“I’d invite people to research the F16 fighter jet built 50 years ago, and reflect on the military aeronautical industry being perhaps the most innovative and progressive of any.
“The construction industry is not going to revolutionise at a macro level with respect to its materiality and scale. Materials such as concrete (cement), steel (iron ore) and glass (silica) are among the most abundant materials in the Earth’s crust, so our cities will for the most part look very similar. It will be subtleties in automation and controls that will evolve and support an enhanced user experience. So, cities might not look very different at all, but hopefully they are healthier and more comfortable.”
Yale Carden The polycrisis “Any trends that will emerge in the built environment, architecture and construction in the coming years will be in reaction to the various environmental and social crises, often referred to as the polycrisis,” Carden explains.
“It’s a really big question, so I have adopted the VUCA framework in my response. VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, and can be described as the constant and unpredictable change that is now effectively the norm.
“VUCA has been adopted not as a free pass for inevitably predicting some or all trends incorrectly but rather to assist to understand the various possible futures in which we are moving towards and the importance of a framework that embraces this myriad of possibilities.
“Further, to recognise competing approaches to developing solutions within these megatrends, a quick introduction to the concepts of degrowth and techno-optimism, both very topical in various online and academic forums.
“Degrowth is defined by Jason Hickel, one of its main advocates, as ‘a planned reduction of energy and resource use designed to bring the economy back into balance with the living world in a way that reduces inequality and improves human wellbeing.’
“In a growth-centric culture this is often a taboo position but one that requires a sensible conversation.
“The second is the technology solutions of the effective accelerationists that see continued growth and technology uptake, artificial general intelligence being the dominant one today, as the only path to solving the polycrisis.
“A VUCA world requires a ‘yes and’ cooperative approach to solutions, not a binary one. As such, these two approaches can live side by side and we arguably want them to.
“The timeframe is important here for ‘coming years’ and I will adopt as being up to 2050. In some models, we could be living in a dystopian world by 2050 whereas in others it may not be that different to today. That VUCA thing again, as we wrestle to understand a range of climate and social tipping points.”
Megatrend: Material resources “Materials technology is arguably one of the greatest growth areas today,” Carden says. “From building materials to fashion to semiconductors to energy storage – electrical and thermal – our use and reuse of material resources has a profound impact on our future.
“With respect to the built environment, the depletion of material resources will see further sophistication and utilisation of embodied carbon and life-cycle assessments. The degrowth option is designing and building smaller homes and effectively repurposing existing buildings, while the technology solutions will be in materials recycling and the identification and creation of regenerative materials.
“The use and/or rediscovery of cross‑laminated timber (CLT), straw bale, rammed earth and bamboo are the precursors of this trend, and I look forward to seeing what becomes possible with natural construction materials such as mycelium.
“Ironically, it may well be the cooperative approach of technology inputs enabling degrowth solutions. For example, AGI identifying the optimal natural materials and production processes for a low‑technology solution.”
Megatrend: Food “Food systems are both one of the largest contributors, and the most susceptible to the environmental crises,” Carden says. “They’re also pretty important to the whole civilisation thing! The ability to grow food (yields) and to distribute it to the customer (supply chains) are both susceptible and will become increasingly fragile.
Think bananas after Cyclone Yasi in 2011 or cocoa and coffee prices in 2024.
“A trend will thus be the localisation and integration of regenerative food‑growing and food-storage systems into the built environment. Individual solutions will largely depend on the density of the built environment. Low‑technology solutions such as rooftop or balcony gardens to appear in higher density areas and the old-school backyard vegie patch or community gardens, street fruit trees and food forests to appear in medium to lower‑density areas.
“High-tech solutions may include vertical farms, aquaponics, covered cropping and increasingly processed foods such as artificial meats as we aim to secure food supply in a changing and more variable climate.”
Megatrend: Energy “Electrification and decarbonisation require an increase in electricity generation to address that used by EVs and the conversion of gas heating. Further, it needs to be from renewable sources or as Nate Hagens has coined them – rebuildable sources. That is, the wind and solar are renewable but the solar panels, wind turbines, etc., are rebuildable.
“Here, I see a trend towards a thermal‑demand-led energy transition. That is, we be as efficient as we can with our thermal demand – the concept of negawatts and that degrowth thing again – which will mean that we need less renewable electricity supply and, perhaps most importantly, less need to upgrade existing transmission systems.
“While the thermal and electricity sectors have largely evolved in parallel, although on different timeframes, the key area of future differentiation is centralisation.
The electricity sector will continue to decentralise, rooftop solar being a near‑perfect example.
“However, the thermal sector will see more centralisation in the form of district thermal energy systems. The merit of centralising thermal energy systems largely lies with the concepts of thermal sharing and thermal storage in that they assist to conserve thermal energy – for example, all that waste heat via cooling towers – and provide arbitrage against supply cost fluctuations. That is, generate heat or cool when costs are low.
Not what we know it today “There are a number of climate and social tipping points that could occur between now and 2050 that, if they do, will dramatically change the Earth as we know it,” Carden says. “Topical examples include the melting of the polar ice caps, collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the loss of insect life and much of our food pollination with them.
“In 2023, six of nine of the Earth’s planetary boundaries had been transgressed. Pressure is building on two, and only ozone depletion is improving. A hat tip to the Montreal Protocol and the HVAC sector for proving that positive shifts are possible.
There is little indication that we are making significant progress on improving the other eight.
“Thus, even if we avoid the worst of dystopia – Bladerunner 2049? – the Earth in 2050 is not what we know it as today.
“Shifting habitats – for example, the Amazon rainforest becoming savannah grasslands – significantly reduced polar areas, higher sea levels, biodiversity losses and intermittent areas of flooded or burnt- out land will be the aesthetics of how the Earth looks in 2050. The degree of this just depends on which model is correct and which tipping points are reached.
In terms of humans, migration from climate-impacted areas is likely to be significant. This will be within and across international boundaries. A precursor to this is those towns in the NSW northern rivers that are being bought out in government buy-back schemes due to increasing flood events through a combination of poor land use planning, more intense weather events and catchment land-use changes.
“Hence, we are already starting to see human movement away from climate-impacted areas and towards ‘safer’ areas.
“Cities will see the majority of this migration, at least those in suitable locations.”
This article first appeared in the June-July 2024 edition of Ecolibrium magazine.
Digital radio station SBS Chill offers a soothing balm for your ears, psyche and soul.
Sometimes when listening to digital radio station SBS Chill, you enter a fugue state of sonic bliss. It’s like taking an aural bath, as keyboards, beats and bass combine into a perfect mellow synthesis.
There is no past during such an experience, no anxiety-producing future. Only the mellifluously relaxing present exists. It’s akin to a brief mental excursion to a bucolic idyll, a foot rub for the harried mind. A day spa for one’s ears.
As the name suggests, SBS Chill, available in Australia on digital radio, online and on digital TV, is designed to relax its listeners.
“Chill out with an eclectic mix of downtempo, electronic, ambient and low-fi tunes from around the world,” says the channel’s promo blurb. “Music for working, studying and relaxing.”
It is, of course, background music. And that’s perhaps a point worth making. Were you to attend a live concert of regularly played SBS Chill artists, it might be advisable to bring along something to read or to doodle on, or your work laptop. It’s possible to do other things while SBS Chill hums and soothes.
As a DJ-less station, mellow music emanates from SBS continuously, 24/7. Each day is divided into different blocks. Because I have started writing this piece early in the day, it’s time for Morning Chill, which will segue into Afternoon Chill, followed by Unwind Chill and Wind Down Chill, which slides seamlessly into Night Chill, Overnight Chill, Gentle Rise, Mindfulness Chill and Breakfast Chill, wherein the virtuous circle continues.
Apart from perhaps a slightly more propulsive feel to Morning Chill, I haven’t detected much difference in the music played in the other time blocks that I’ve heard. Mind you, I haven’t yet tried to immerse myself in a continuous 24-hour loop.
Now playing is “Focus” by Thomas Lerner, which sounds like the poignant accompaniment to a montage sequence of a science fiction film set in the near future. It shifts nicely into “Sakura” by Living Room – low-fi beats over layers of synth strings.
Add “Kindred Spirit” by Sizzlebird and “Un jour comme un au tre” by Degiheugi, which has some muted brass folded in, to the morning list.
Earlier in the session we were privy to “Sweet Tides” by Thievery Corporation, “It’s Good to Hear Your Voice” by dj poolboi (note the lowercase, with unconventional treatment of capitalisation something of a convention among low-fi ensembles), and “Frozen” (Extended Mix) by Nivlem. I’ve already forgotten what these tunes sounded like. They have all melded into one continuous, amorphous sonic soup.
At some point in my SBS Chill listening, I began to look up artists and songs. You can listen and not notice an hour or two has passed, but occasionally a tune will stick out.
Now, where were we … while my mood has been sonically moderated and the coffee percolating, a bunch of tunes have filled the space. “The State We’re In” by the Chemical Brothers is one of those. Another four recent tracks have been by artists or bands with one-words names: Empea, Duga, Sayana and Yasuma. It fits the vibe.
My research leads me to believe that the Golden Age of downtempo tunes was the late 1990s/early 2000s, with seminal tracks produced mainly by European DJs and producers such as Air, St Germain, Nightmares on Wax (a somewhat incongruous sobriquet for a remarkably mellow artist), the aforementioned Thievery Corporation, DJ Max, Bonobo, Lemonjelly and Tycho, whose tunes are all different from one another, but all sound like the soundtrack from a surfing documentary.
These are your legendary chill artists – those purveyors of tunes so soft and soothing they surely create a mental state of relaxation inspiring either astonishing productivity, or, conversely, one that requires no other sustenance apart from continuous mellow music.
I have purchased several albums from artists discovered on SBS Chill. Those mentioned here, including all four from St Germain, which despite the name suggesting a collective is in fact a solo artist, a reclusive French DJ and producer who seems to have gone into semi-retirement.
“Happy Hour at the Gene Pool” by Evolve is described by one listener as “a delightful blend of lounge pop, subtle beats, found sound, and mellow jazz influences” and another as “a mingling mélange of smooth grooves and chilled tracks from beginning to end.” It’s a good one to play in the car.
In fact, you encounter a lot of found sounds on SBS Chill – snatches of dialogue from old and obscure films, news reels, documentaries and interviews.
Sometimes too, you might hear a local artist, which is how I discovered self-styled Melbourne musicians Surprise Chef, Sinj Clarke and Mildlife.
One should not confuse or miscategorise the music featured on SBS Chill with muzak or the “middle of the road” or “adult contemporary” categories. Although some tunes harken back to an earlier calmer time, the music on SBS is not so easily filed. It crosses aural boundaries. Most might accurately be described as electronic soundscapes, but other tunes are more traditional analogue fare. I recently heard “Summer Nights” by Lonnie Liston Smith & the Cosmic Echoes, from 1975.
Perhaps there is only a limited audience for the kind of low-fi downbeat ambient music broadcast by SBS Chill. A few years ago, private station Buddha explored similar sonic territory, but eventually ceased operation. Though the blocks of advertising it inserted were obviously necessary for the running of the station, they messed with the music flow. There’s nothing chill about the hard call to action of an advertisement.
“Playlist” is a nicer and more accurate word than “algorithm” for what we hear on SBS Chill, since I believe the list is curated by human expertise rather than bought into existence by AI. And it evolves.
For instance, I can’t recall the last time I heard “Sweet Fantastic” by troubled erstwhile Stone Roses frontman Ian Brown. And Hungarian musician Yonderboi’s instrumental version of the Doors’ “Riders on the Storm” could come around a bit more often, if I’m honest.
Mind you, it’s my own fault, I’m not completely loyal to SBS Chill. I listen to other radio stations and to albums too. Silence is also pleasing, on occasions (And truth be told, you might go a little loco listening exclusively to chill music. Sometimes I need listening material that has some soul or bite, some grit, groove and narrative rather than simply a mellow mood.)
There are few regular events on the station’s calendar. On Friday evening there’s a slot for soundtracks. And annually on New Year’s Day SBS Chill hosts the Chillest 100. That particular day makes a kind of sense, since downtempo, low-fi and trip-hop have an association as “recovery” music. They are tunes to have trilling away while you replenish energy expended at a club, bar or dance party the night before.
And yet the very idea of competition among chill tunes seems a little distasteful, in the manner of competitive yoga or rock climbing.
Does it matter which tune was the most popular among listeners last year? Not really, and the 100 tunes or 100 others could have been played in any order and still been credible.
Many of the usual suspects featured in last year’s list: Moby, Massive Attack, Morcheeba, Rufus Du Sol, Groove Armada and Portishead were all there. Alongside these are plenty of artists whose names I don’t recognise, and only a few whose monikers accurately reflect the soft and plaintive soundscapes most of these groups produce, enshrouding listeners in a pleasant sonic cocoon.
“Slip into something more Comfortable” by Kinobe and “Soothed by Summer” by Liminal Drifter are a couple that do, and two that receive a regular airing on SBS Chill.
The winner of the coveted No.1 slot in the 2024 lists was – soft percussion drumroll please (bongo perhaps) – “La Femme d’argent” by groundbreaking French duo Air, who toured Australia recently, (and are not to be confused with Airstream, who came in at #36 with “Indigo” (Daydream mix).
At the conclusion of the SBS Chill 100, regular programming continued. I had it on in the background.
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